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Risk of another ‘2018 Summer’ this Year in Sweden

Risk of another ‘2018 Summer’ this Year in Sweden

Several factors make an extremely hot summer more likely this year, and so far the long-term forecasts also indicate unusually dry and warm weather in southern Sweden. El Niño raises the surface water temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean and usually makes the weather in Australia, among others, warmer and drier. If we get another extreme summer here in Sweden, can it be determined that it was caused by climate change?

The weather phenomenon El Niño raises the surface water temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean and usually makes the weather in Australia, among others, warmer and drier, while Peru and neighboring countries get hot and wet. Professor Annica Ekman says that it is still not certain if El Niño will reach Europe but it can affect Swedish summer.

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During the extreme summer of 2018, a blocking high pressure was over northern Europe which made it unusually dry and sunny for an unusually long time. We do not yet know if and, if so, where such high pressures may occur this summer. So far, however, the long-term forecasts that are available point to dry and hot summer weather, especially in southern Sweden.

Already now, a heat wave with drought has spread widely in Spain, among others, which is significantly earlier than normal. The drought itself can also speed up the process. France and the Alps have also had major problems with drought in the spring.

In 2018, uncontrollable fires broke out all over Sweden and groundwater levels dropped to very low levels. Similar problems are to be expected if we get an extreme summer this year as well. Drought in other parts of Europe can be felt by Swedes if it affects the cultivation of crops that Sweden imports.

The impact and risks of El Niño are superimposed on the general trend of increasingly extreme summer weather caused by global warming.

If we get another extreme summer here in Sweden, can it be determined that it was caused by climate change? Professor Annica Ekman says that there is a much greater risk that we will have extreme weather that risk will become greater and greater as global warming continues.

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